As Panarin sees it, "There's a 55-45 percent chance right now that disintegration will occur." "One could rejoice in that process," he added. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario — for Russia."
Panarin, a former KGB analyst, is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats.
According to Panarin, mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will split into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
For Georgians, Paranin sees the state becoming part of the Texas Republic and being under Mexico's influence.
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