Computer Model Picks UNC to Win March Madness

Come April 6, Tar Heel fans should have reason to celebrate - providing the math is right.


LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain), the computer ranking system designed by three professors at the Georgia Institute of Technology, has predicted that the NCAA Final Four basketball match ups for 2009 will be the University of North Carolina vs. the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Memphis vs. the University of Louisville.

The computer ranking system designed by three Georgia Tech professors has an impressive track record in forecasting Final Four tournament results. The championship battle, according to LRMC calculations, should pit North Carolina against Memphis with North Carolina emerging as the victor.

Unlike the NCAA tournament seeds released earlier this month, LRMC forecast Memphis reaching the Final Four instead of the University of Connecticut.

"There are a few instances where it disagrees with the seeding,” said Dr. Joel Sokol, operations research professor in the Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Tech who devised the program. “On the other hand, our system agrees with the awarding of fewer at-large bids for mid-majors than in the past. There just weren’t as many deserving mid-major teams this year.”

If history is any indicator, it’s a promising prognostication.

LRMC, developed by Professors Sokol, Paul Kvam and George Nemhauser, has been proven to be an impressively accurate method to forecast tournament results.

Last year, the LRMC method correctly identified all Final Four participants and heralded Kansas defeating Memphis in the eventual championship.

The LRMC formula includes scoreboard results, which teams are competing, home court advantage and margin of victory in its computational formula. In addition to predicting a potential victor, these calculations can also offer insight into teams that hold more - or less - potential than NCAA seeding indicates.

For example, the 2008 predictions included picking out overrated teams such as Duke, Vanderbilt and Connecticut, which all lost in early rounds. The system also identified West Virginia and Kansas State as potential spoilers. Both teams completed upset victories during last year’s tournament.

As for this year, Michigan State, Boston College and Utah were all poised for potential upsets during the tournament. Conversely, UCLA, Wisconsin, Arizona State and USC were labeled as potential spoilers.

Upsets are always part of the equation but the predictions - barring any shockers - will stand throughout the tournament.

March Madness fans can access the LRMC rankings and analysis at http://www.finalfour.gatech.edu.

Death Penalty Sought in Carson Murder

Prosecutors plan to seek the death penalty against one of the men accused of killing Athens native and former University of North Carolina student body president Eve Carson.

A grand jury indicted Demario James Atwater last October on federal charges of carjacking resulting in death, carrying and using firearms in relation to carjacking, being a felon in possession of a firearm, and possessing a short-barreled shotgun not properly registered to him.

He also faces state first-degree murder charges in Orange County, North Carolina, along with 18-year-old Lawrence Alvin Lovette. Authorities said Lovette will not face the death penalty as a result of his age (17) at the time of the murder.

According to an autopsy report, Carson, an honors student, had multiple gunshot wounds when she was discovered lying on a Chapel Hill street. The autopsy report listed six gunshot wounds but said two of the wounds were probably from the same bullet.

Court documents released in the North Carolina case said Carson was taken from her apartment and forced to give her abductors ATM access to her bank account before she was shot to death in the early hours of March 5.

Applications filed for search warrants said a confidential informant told police that Atwater said he and Lovette entered Carson's home through an open door and forced her to accompany them in her car. The informant said she had talked with Atwater after a picture was shown on television of someone attempting to use Carson's ATM card at a convenience store two days after her body was found.

The informant said the two men drove Carson to an ATM, obtained her PIN from her and then shot her. The witness told police that Atwater said the two got about $1,400 from Carson's account. Bank records show that was approximately the amount taken from the account over a two-day period.

Orange County District Attorney Jim Woodall will also reportedly seek the death penalty against Atwater.

Defendant Faces Court in Murder of Carson

Demario Atwater, one of two individuals accused in the death of Georgia native Eve Carson, was in U.S. District Court in Greensboro, N.C., today to face charges in her death.

Atwater, who could face the death penalty if convicted, faces charges that include carjacking resulting in death. Co-defendant Laurence Lovette cannot be executed if convicted because he was 17 at the time of Carson's death.

Carson, who was the student body president at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, was gunned down back in March not far from her campus residence.

Carson was an Athens native and a graduate of Clarke Central High School.